Currency Playbook - Blue Line FX Rundown
Bill Baruch of Blue Line Futures - InsideFutures.com - Mon Apr 15, 6:27PM CDT
FX Rundown

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Euro (June)

Session close:Settled at 1.13635, down 6.5 ticks

Fundamentals:The Euro was range bound in a quiet session to start the week. A better than expected read on NY Empire State Manufacturing kept a potentially weaker Dollar pegged to unchanged. Chicago Fed President Evans said today the Fed should embrace inflation just above its 2% target and consider cutting rates if inflation fell to 1.5% even if unemployment remained low. Evans is a 2019 voter and fellow 2019 voter, Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks tonight at 7:00 pm CT. The economic calendar speeds up tomorrow morning with the closely watched German and Eurozone ZEW Sentiment due at 4:00 am CT. The more closely watched German read is expected to turn positive for the first in over a year. Jobs data from the U.K precedes it at 3:30 am CT and an outlier could set a tone for the Dollar Index. From the U.S, Industrial Production will be crucial at 8:15 am CT. Right now, the Euro has once again responded from the lowest region since June 2017 but now the question is whether it can extend gains and begin digging itself out of this hole.

Technicals:Price action has tested above major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Yen (June)

Session close:Settled at .89715, down 5 ticks

Fundamentals:Safe-haven assets took a nose-dive Friday and the Yen broke through a recent floor to trade to the lowest level since December. Equites continued their march higher and the broader market focuses on what it wants and on Friday a recovery in Chinese Exports and Eurozone Industrial Production stole headlines although U.S imports to China shrunk and fresh Michigan Consumer data showed deteriorating Sentiment and Expectations. Today, safe-haven assets consolidated and now face a string of data from Europe and the U.S tomorrow ahead of a deluge from China. This line-up is expected to paint a picture whether growth has bottomed in recent weeks. Tonight, we look to Tertiary Industry Activity from Japan at 11:30 pm CT.

Technicals:The Yen broke through its floor and now looks to ping major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Aussie (June)

Session close:Settled at.7183, down 2 ticks

Fundamentals:The Aussie is holding at near two-month highs as risk-assets find support in the hope that growth is bottoming and of course that a trade deal between the U.S and China is possibly right around the corner. The IMF was upbeat on global growth and said they believe it will firm-up. They cited reduced tensions between the U.S and China as well as stimulus measures from China. The Aussie has been able to capitalize on all of this in recent weeks. Tonight, we look to the release of the RBA Minutes from their most recent meeting and any comments on economic activity that could sway perception between the likeliness of a cut in the near future.

Technicals:Last week, we said we were Bullish the Aussie so as long as it stayed above major three-star support at ....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Canadian (June)

Session close:Settled at .7486, down 25 ticks

Fundamentals:We have said for weeks, what disappointing rally in the Canadian given what Crude Oil and other risk-assets have done. Midweek last week, we called the Canadian a fade and its been just that into this week as the worst performing major currency against the Dollar today. Weakness in Crude Oil as it consolidates a little off last weeks new swing high certainly weighed on this unenthusiastic tape and this could lead the way to further downside in the very near-term. Tomorrow, we look to Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases data tomorrow at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals:With another settle at and just below a floor of support, we are upping our Bearish Bias in the very near-term. We must see the Canadian continue to secure a close below ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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