AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 20, 2018

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher in most contracts on Friday. Total exports are now just 3% behind a year ago, with total commitments outpacing the same time by 5.3%. Following last week’s increase to projected exports, they are now just 96% of the USDA number vs. the average of 102% on this date. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange trimmed their Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 31 MMT, potentially opening up more US export opportunity. China sold another 1.102 MMT of corn from state reserves at an auction of state reserves on Friday, totaling 28.29% of the offered amount.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.54 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.68 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.79 1/2, up 3 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.85 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

July 20, 2018

Soybean futures are showing 1 to 2 cent losses in most front months at midday, pressured by more belligerent trade talk. Nearby soy meal is down $2.40/ton, with soy oil 11 points higher. The 6-10 day outlook is showing forecasts for cooler and drier weather for much of the Midwest. Export commitments for soybeans are now 3.8% behind last year. They are 102% of the newly updated USDA export projection of 2.85 bbu, matching the 5 year average pace. Soy meal shipments were 341,927 MT, with 20,374 MT for soy oil.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.44 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.50 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.59 1/2, down 2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.70, down 1 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $326.40, down $2.40

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.94, up $0.11

Wheat

July 20, 2018

Wheat futures are mostly 11 to 12 cents higher in the CBT and KC contracts at midday. MPLS is leading the way, up 15 to 17 cents. All wheat commitments for export are now lagging last year by 26.5%. They are also well behind the normal pace if they are to hit the USDA projected export number of 975 mbu, currently sitting at 24% complete, with the average at 37%. USDA appears to be assuming that the export pace will pick up as smaller crops in Russia and elsewhere are reflected in the supply chain. Taiwan is seeking 102,775 MT of US wheat in a tender that will close next Thursday. Japan has lifted the temporary ban on Canadian wheat imports following last month’s discovery of some GMO wheat in Canada.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.15 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.08 1/2, up 12 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.53 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents

Cattle

July 20, 2018

Live cattle futures are currently 10 to 42.5 cents lower in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are down 65 cents to $1.05. The CME feeder cattle index was down 28 cents from the previous day at $148.31 on 7/18. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 476,000 head through Thursday. That was up 11,000 from the same week last year but down 3,000 head vs. last week. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down 57 cents to $203.92, while Select boxes were 17 cents lower at $196.75. Cash cattle bids of $108 are still being reported, with dressed bids up to $177 as there are no reported sales at midday.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $108.700, down $0.200,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.225, down $0.425,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.300, down $0.125,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $153.400, down $1.050

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.125, down $0.650

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.275, down $0.650

Lean Hogs

July 20, 2018

Lean hog futures are trading $1.10 to $1.475 in the red on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 53 cents on July 18, to $78.62. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.83 on Friday morning at $80.86. The belly led the way, down $11.11, with the butt and ham following. The national base carcass price was $68.37 in the Friday PM report, down 88 cents from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 1.814 million head through Thursday. That is 82,000 head above last year, and up 3,000 head from the week previous.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $65.775, down $1.475,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $50.850, down $1.375

Dec 18 Hogs are at $45.775, down $1.100

Cotton

July 20, 2018

Cotton futures are down 80 to 96 points at the moment. Sharp losses in the US dollar are being offset by more trade news. President Trump is contemplating adding tariffs on the full $500 billion in Chinese goods the US purchases annually because of a lack of progress in negotiations, though no plan was laid out. Export commitments for all upland cotton are now 108% of the USDA export projection, with the normal pace at 106%. Accumulated exports are 93% of that projection, vs. the 5-year average of 95%. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day at 97.95 cents/lb on July 18. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.50 cents/lb, up 333 points from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 87.5, down 80 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 86.66, down 89 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 86.52, down 91 points

May 19 Cotton is at 86.600, down 96 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
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