AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with nearby contracts 6 to 6 3/4 cents higher. USDA reported a private export sale of 160,020 MT of corn to Mexico for 18/19 delivery through their daily reporting system. This morning’s FAS Export Sales report indicated 1.384 MMT for 18/19 corn export bookings during the week of 9/13. That exceeded expectations and was 162.63% larger than the same week last year. Mexico purchased 344,600 MT, with South Korea buying 204,300 MT. There was also 9,653 MT in 19/20 sales. Shipments were shown at 1.078 MMT in that week, 53.15% larger than the same time in 2017. A Chinese auction from state reserves saw sales of ~3 MMT on Thursday, totaling 75.45% of the offered amount. The 6-10 day outlook shows above average chances for moisture.

DEC 18 Corn closed at $3.52 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.64 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

MAY 19 Corn closed at $3.72 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents

JUL 19 Corn closed at $3.79, up 6 cents

Soybeans Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Soybean futures posted gains of 19 to 20 1/4 cents in the front months on Thursday, supported by short covering and good export numbers. A Bloomberg report on Thursday showed that China is planning to trim their average tariff rate on imports from trading partners as soon as Oct. No word on if it includes the US. Soybean meal was up $5/ton, while soy oil was 35 points in the green. Showers over the next week or so could slow harvest. Export sales for 18/19 soybeans totaled 917,556 MT in the week that ended on 9/13, slightly above the range of trade estimates. That was well short of last year, but above the week prior. Sales to China were shown at a net reduction of 4,000 MT, with Mexico the lead buyer of 165,600 MT. Sales of 19/20 soybeans were reported at 80,000 MT. Actual exports were down from the week prior at 800,913 MT, with none of that to China. Soy meal sales totaled 137,356 MT, with 18,122 MT in soy oil sales.

NOV 18 Soybeans closed at $8.50 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.64, up 20 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.77, up 19 3/4 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89 3/4, up 19 1/2 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal closed at $311.40, up $5.00,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.60, up $0.35

Wheat Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Wheat futures saw steady to 2 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday, with a couple KC and MPLS contracts fractionally lower. Weakness in the US dollar index provided a little support, along with spillover strength in corn. The weekly Export Sales report showed all wheat bookings during the week of 9/13 at 468,433 MT, on the high side of trade estimates. That was a 20.9% jump from the week prior and 52.5% larger than the same week in 2017. The Philippines purchased 80,000 MT, with Indonesia buying 70,000 MT and Vietnam in for 61,000 MT. We are now through week 15, with still no reported sales for 19/20. Export shipments were reported at 315,143 MT, 26.55% below last week, with 150,600 MT headed to Japan.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.27, up 3/4 cent,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent

Cattle Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Live cattle futures ended Thursday with most contracts steady to 65 cents in the red. Feeder cattle futures were down 10 to 60 cents, with nearby Sept up 50 cents. The CME feeder cattle index on September 19 was up $1.38 at $154.46. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 27 cents to $204.52, while Select boxes were 73 cents higher at $194.91. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 473,000 head through Thursday. That is down 3,000 from last week but 7,000 head above the same week in 2017. Analysts are expecting (Reuters survey) that the USDA will show September 1 Cattle on Feed at 11.067 million head, up 5.4% from last year. Export sales of 15,894 MT for beef in the week of 9/13 were reported this morning. Weekly exports were shown at 17,336 MT. A few dressed sales of $175 in the North were reported on Thursday.

OCT 18 Cattle closed at $112.450, down $0.650,

DEC 18 Cattle closed at $117.900, down $0.075,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $121.600, down $0.250,

SEP 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.025, up $0.500

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $157.725, down $0.150

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $157.600, down $0.125

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Lean hog futures closed with the front months up 37.5 cents to $1.25 on Thursday and deferred contracts lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.41 on September 18 to $55.99. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 56 cents higher at $78.95 in the this afternoon’s FOB plant report. The national base hog carcass value was up $2.17 @ $58.40 on Thursday afternoon. Week to date FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.709 million head. That is down 40,000 head from last week and 108,000 head from the same week last year. Pork export sales during the week that ended on 9/13 were reported at 22,856 MT. Shipments in that week were at 20,761 MT.

OCT 18 Hogs closed at $61.250, up $1.250,

DEC 18 Hogs closed at $58.275, up $0.375

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $65.625, down $0.325

Cotton Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

Cotton futures settled with 11 to 53 point losses on Thursday, despite a sharply lower US dollar index. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated that 97,733 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold in the week of 9/13, with 32,912 RB in sales of the 19/20 crop. Sales to China were reported at net reductions of -3 RB for 18/19 and 440 RB in 19/20 sales. Export shipments were seen at 16,174 RB to China, with the overall total to all countries at 148,892 RB. Pima sales totaled 3,300 RB for 18/19, with 600 RB to China. The Cotlook A index was down 265 points from the previous day at 88.15 cents/lb on September 19. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 71.59 cents/lb, down 2.20 cents from the week prior.

OCT 18 Cotton closed at 79.1, down 53 points,

DEC 18 Cotton closed at 78.54, down 18 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 79.04, down 11 points

MAY 19 Cotton closed at 79.67, down 20 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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